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ブラック・スワン[上]―不確実性とリスクの本質

ブラック・スワン[下]―不確実性とリスクの本質

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

• Prologue
  • On the Plumage of Birds
    • What you Do Not Know
    • Experts and "Empty Suits"
    • Learning to Learn
  • A New Kind of Ingratitude
  • Life Is Very Unusual
  • Plato and the Nerd
  • Too Dull to Write About
  • The Bottom Line
    • Chapters Map
• PART ONE: UMBERTO ECO'S ANTILIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION
  • Chapter 1:The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic
    • Anatomy of a Black Swan
      • On Walking Walks
      • "Paradise" Evaporated
      • The Starred Night
    • History and the Triplet of Opacity
      • Nobody Knows What's Going On
      • History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps
      • Dear Diary: On History Running Backward
      • Education in a Taxicab
    • Clusters
      • Where Is the Show?
    • 8 3/4 Lbs Later
      • The Four-Letter Word of Independence
      • Limousine Philosopher
  • Chapter 2:Yevgenia's Black Swan
  • Chapter 3:The Speculator and the Prostitute
    • The Best (Worst) Advice
    • Beware the Scalable
      • The Advent of Scalability
    • Scalability and Globalization
    • Travels Inside Mediocristan
      • The Strange Country of Extremistan
      • Extremistan and Knowledge
      • Wild and Mild
      • The Tyranny of the Accident
  • Chapter 4:One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker
    • How to Learn from the Turkey
      • Trained to Be Dull
      • A Black Swan Is Relative to Knowledge
    • A Brief History of the Black Swan Problem
      • Sextus the (Alas) Empirical
      • Algazel
      • The Skeptic, Friend of Religion
      • I Don't Want to Be a Turkey
      • They Want to Live in Mediocristan
  • Chapter 5:Confirmation Shmonfirmation!
    • • Zoogles Are Not All Boogles
      • Evidence
    • Negative Empiricism
      • Counting to Three
      • Saw Another Red Mini!
      • Not Everything
      • Back to Mediocristan
  • Chapter 6:The Narrative Fallacy
    • On the Causes of My Rejection of Causes
    • Splitting Brains
      • A Little More Dopamine
      • Andrey Nikolayevich's Rule
      • A Better Way to Die
    • Remembrance of Things Not Quite Past
      • The Madman's Narrative
      • Narrative and Therapy
    • To Be Wrong with Infinite Precision
      • Dispassionate Science
    • The Sensational and the Black Swan
      • Black Swan Blindness
      • The Pull of the Sensational
    • The Shortcuts
      • Beware the Brain
      • How to Avert the Narrative Fallac
  • Chapter 7:Living in the Antechamber of Hope
    • Peer Cruelty
      • Where the Relevant Is the Sensational
      • Nonlinearities
      • Process over Results
      • Human Nature, Happiness, and Lumpy
      • Rewards
      • The Antechamber of Hope
      • Inebriated by Hope
      • The Sweet Trap of Anticipation
      • When You Need the Bastiani Fortress
    • El desierto de los tartaros
      • Bleed or Blowup
  • Chapter 8:Giacomo Casanova's Unfailing Luck: The Problem of Silent Evidence
    • The Story of the Drowned Worshippers
    • The Cemetery of Letters
      • How to Become a Millionaire in Ten Steps
    • A Health Club for Rats
      • Vicious Bias
      • More Hidden Applications
      • The Evolution of the Swimmer's Body
    • What You See and What You Don't See
      • Doctors
    • The Teflon-style Protection of Giacomo Casanova
      • "I Am a Risk Taker"
    • I Am a Black Swan: The Anthropic Bias
      • The Cosmetic Because
  • Chapter 9:The Ludic Fallacy, or The Uncertainty of the Nerd
    • Fat Tony
      • Non-Brooklyn John
    • Lunch at Lake Como
      • The Uncertainly of the Nerd
      • Gambling with the Wrong Dice
    • Wrapping Up Part One
      • The Cosmetic Rises to the Surface
      • Distance from Primates
• PART TWO: WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT
  • • • From Yogi Berra to Henri Poincare
  • Chapter 10:The Scandal of Prediction
    • On the Vagueness of Catherine's Lover Count
    • Black Swan Blindness Redux
      • Guessing and Predicting
    • Information Is Bad for Knowledge
    • The Expert Problem, or the Tragedy of the Empty Suit
      • What Moves and What Does Not Move
      • How to Have the Last Laugh
      • Events Are Outlandish
      • Herding Like Cattle
      • I Was "Almost" Right
      • Reality? What For?
    • "Other Than That," It Was Okay
      • The Beauty of Technology: Excel Spreadsheets
      • The Character of Prediction Errors
    • Don't Cross a River if It Is (on Average) Four Feet Deep
      • Get Another Job
      • At JFK
  • Chapter 11:How to Look for Bird Poop
    • How to Look for Bird Poop
      • Inadvertent Discoveries
      • A Solution Waiting for a Problem
      • Keep Searching
    • How to Predict Your Predictions!
    • The Nth Billiard Ball
      • Third Republic-Style Decorum
      • The Three Body Problem
      • They Still Ignore Hayek
      • How Not to Be a Nerd
      • Academic Libertarianism
      • Prediction and Free Will
    • The Grueness of Emerald
    • That Great Anticipation Machine
  • Chapter 12:Epistemocracy, a Dream
    • • Monsieur de Montaigne, Epistemocrat
      • Epistemocracy
    • The Past's Past, and the Past's Future
      • Prediction, Misprediction, and Happiness
      • Helenus and the Reverse Prophecies
      • The Melting Ice Cube
      • Once Again, Incomplete Information
      • What They Call Knowledge
  • Chapter 13:Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do if You Cannot Predict?
    • Advice Is Cheap, Very Cheap
      • Being a Fool in the Right Places
      • Be Prepared
    • The Idea of Positive Accident
      • Volatility and Risk of Black Swan
      • Barbell Strategy
      • "Nobody Knows Anything"
      • The Great Asymmetry
• PART THREE: THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN
  • Chapter 14:From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Back
    • • The World Is Unfair
      • The Matthew Effect
      • Lingua Franca
      • Ideas and Contagions
    • Nobody Is Safe in Extremistan
      • A Brooklyn Frenchman
      • The Long Tail
      • Naive Globalization
    • Reversals Away from Extremistan
  • Chapter 15:The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud
    • The Gaussian and the Mandelbrotian
      • The Increase in the Decrease
      • The Mandelbrotian
      • What to Remember
      • Inequality
      • Extremistan and the 80/20 Rule
      • Grass and Trees
      • How Coffee Drinking Can Be Safe
      • Love of Certainties
      • How to Cause Catastrophes
    • Quetelet's Average Monster
      • Golden Mediocrity
      • God's Error
      • Poincare to the Rescue
      • Eliminating Unfair Influence
      • "The Greeks Would Have Deified It"
      • "Yes/No" Only Please
    • A (Literary) Thought Experiment on Where the Bell Curve Comes From
      • Those Comforting Assumptions
      • "The Ubiquity of the Gaussian"
  • Chapter 16:The Aesthetics of Randomness
    • The Poet of Randomness
    • The Platonicity of Triangles
      • The Geometry of Nature
      • Fractality
      • A Visual Approach to Extremistan/Mediocristan
      • Pearls to Swine
    • The Logic of Fractal Randomness (with a Warning)
      • The Problem of the Upper Bound
      • Beware the Precision
      • The Water Puddle Revisited
      • From Representation to Reality
    • Once Again, Beware the Forecasters
      • Once Again, a Happy Solution
    • Where Is the Gray Swan?
  • Chapter 17:Locke's Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places
    • • Only Fifty Years
      • The Clerks' Betrayal
      • Anyone Can Become President
      • More Horror
      • Confirmation
    • It Was Just a Black Swan
      • How to "Prove" Things
  • Chapter 18:The Uncertainty of the Phony
    • Ludic Fallacy Redux
      • Find the Phony
      • Can Philosophers Be Dangerous to Society?
      • The Problem of Practice
    • How Many Wittgensteins Can Dance on the Head of a Pin?
      • Where Is Popper When You Need Him?
      • The Bishop and the Analyst
      • Easier Than You Think: The Problem of Decision Under Skepticism
• PART FOUR: THE END
  • Chapter 19:Half and Half, or How to Get Even with the Black Swan
    • When Missing a Train Is Painless
    • The End
• Epilogue: Yevgenia's White Swans

検索用：Nassim Nicholas Taleb